Air Quality and the San Joaquin Valley  

Introduction
The San Joaquin Valley faces a seemingly impossible challenge of meeting federal air quality standards. Explosive population growth, two major interstate highways, diverse urban and rural sources, geography and climate conspire to make meeting air quality standards extremely difficult, if not impossible. At the same time, failure to meet these standards will result in draconian penalties for all Valley residents: loss of control over our own destiny; freezing $2 billion in federal highway funds that are badly needed by local governments; up to $40 million a year in new fees on hundreds of small and mid-sized businesses in the Valley; major new pollution reduction requirements for facility expansions; severe restrictions on growth and the possible loss of personal freedoms to use automobiles.

For these reasons, businesses in the Valley have reluctantly come to the conclusion that they must support a reclassification of the Valley’s federal air quality designation from severe to extreme. Seeking an extreme air quality designation will place the Valley in the position of being stigmatized as one of just two regions in the nation with such a designation. (The other is Los Angeles.) This stigma, and the resulting additional regulation and costs that come with it, is particularly painful because the San Joaquin Valley business community has played a major role in making improvements to air quality over the past 15 years. Nonetheless, the time has arrived to seek and obtain this new reclassification.

This paper provides an explanation for the business community’s reluctant – but necessary – decision to support a reclassification to extreme and their commitment to work with state and federal regulators to achieve the additional air quality improvements that must be achieved to bring the Valley into compliance with health-based air quality standards. The business community, after all, is really just men and women and families who live in the Valley and who share with other residents dreams and aspirations for a region with the cleanest air possible, the strongest communities and an economy strong enough to support future generations.

The San Joaquin Valley Cannot Meet Federal Air Quality Standards
There is little dispute among knowledgeable parties that it will be impossible for the Valley to meet federal ozone standards by the deadline in 2005. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are the two primary contaminants that form ozone. The Valley Air District and the state Air Resources Board have estimated that in order to meet the current standard by 2005, it will be necessary to remove 150 tons each per day of the VOCs and NOx now present in the air – roughly one-third of the VOCs and NOx in the air – in less than three years.

In a memorandum to the directors of the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District, Executive Director David L. Crow wrote, “To be forthright with the Governing Board members, I must tell you that this amount of emission reduction represents an impossible task given that your jurisdiction of control is limited to stationary sources . . .” of air pollution. The Air District, said Crow, has no authority to regulate emissions from cars and trucks. Yet 60 percent of the air pollution in the Valley comes from cars, trucks and other mobile sources.

More than 10 percent of Valley ozone comes from sources regulated exclusively by the Federal EPA, such as aircraft and trains. Any progress on reducing emissions from these sources won’t take effect until 2006, at the soonest.

This challenge is the joint responsibility of state, federal and regional air quality regulators, since no single agency has enough jurisdiction to accomplish this daunting task on its own. No matter the approach, solving this problem by 2005 would have catastrophic impacts on the regional economy.

How catastrophic would these impacts be? If all auto and truck traffic were stopped – immediately and permanently – the Valley would reduce VOC emissions by 144 tons per day. Shutting down all off road vehicle activity – including all farming operations, construction, use of all recreational vehicles including boats, lawn mowers, etc. – would remove 144 tons of NOx per day.

Without bringing all cars and trucks to a halt, the Valley could achieve the required reductions in ozone only by shutting down all industrial processing, food processing, manufacturing and oil and gas operations in the entire region. The resulting loss of jobs and economic collapse would undoubtedly produce additional emission reductions as residents left the region in search of employment.

Why Meeting Air Quality Standards Is So Difficult
The air quality standards that apply to the San Joaquin Valley are health-based standards, meaning they are designed to ensure little or no adverse health consequences to residents. They are also national standards. The same standards that apply to the San Joaquin Valley apply to San Francisco, Denver, New York and Miami. But the Valley faces a unique set of circumstances that are not present in any other part of the country. The long, narrow valley provides almost no escape for pollution. High temperatures and inversions create additional natural barriers that prevent pollution from escaping. Two major interstate highways, I-5 and U.S. 99, carry 82 million vehicle miles every year. The Valley is also home to diverse pollution sources, from rural farming operations to oil production to fast-growing residential communities. Prevailing winds tend to blow pollution into the Valley from other regions of California, mix it up within the Valley, and even blow some out of the Valley.

The Valley has experienced unprecedented population growth in recent decades, putting additional pressure on air quality. Since 1990, the number of people living in the Valley has increased by 23 percent – nearly twice the rate of the state’s growth. Moreover, the Valley’s population is expected to grow by another 50 percent in the next 20 years.

These factors present a daunting challenge for business, residents and regulators.

The Valley’s Air is Getting Better
Despite these challenges, and even when accounting for the dramatic increase in population and vehicle miles traveled, the Valley’s air is getting cleaner.

The total amount of ozone constituents in the Valley’s air has declined by 37 percent since 1985. The number of days the Valley has exceeded safe ozone levels set by the federal government, known as the 1-hour ozone limit, declined 43 percent between 1985 and 2000. This is the standard under which the Valley’s progress is judged. In addition, the number of days over the newly established federal 8-hour ozone limit declined 19 percent since 1985. And the number of times the Valley exceeded the separate state ozone limit declined 23 percent since 1985.

Again, these improvements have occurred in the face of enormous population and vehicle growth, although there could be some variation depending on the weather from year-to-year. According to the SJV Air District, “Our region has seen noteworthy air quality improvements over the past decade.”

What Happens if the Valley Does Not Meet Air Quality Standards by 2005
Although the deadline to achieve air quality standards is not until 2005, the federal government will act much sooner to sanction the Valley if regional air pollution regulators are unable to demonstrate the severe State Implementation Plan (SIP) will bring the region into compliance. In fact, the EPA could act as soon as this June to begin developing sanctions.

This much is certain: the Valley Air District will not be able to demonstrate the severe SIP will bring the Valley into compliance by 2005. “The San Joaquin Valley Air Basin most assuredly will fail to achieve the national ambient air quality standard for ozone by the applicable 2005 attainment date,” according to the air district executive director.

Failure to demonstrate compliance would likely result in the following:

• In June or July of 2002, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency would begin developing a Federal Implementation Plan for the Valley that would federalize all state and regional air quality permits. Based on a proposed FIP for Southern California in the mid-1990s, the EPA could insist on onerous sanctions like “no-drive” days, downsizing and retrofitting of commercial vehicles, and controls on barbeques and fireplaces.

• Elimination of up to $2 billion in federal transportation funds. Projects would be affected throughout the Valley, including major improvements to SR 41 in Fresno County, SR 46 and SR 14 in Kern County, SR 99 in Merced County, the Oakdale Bypass in Stanislaus County, and SR 99 in Tulare County, to name just a few.

• Increased costs of pollution offsets. New industrial sources would be required to increase the amount of pollution offsets from 125% of their new emissions to 200%. Not only will this new requirement be costly, but the emission credits most businesses use to provide these offsets will be virtually nonexistent. This could limit or bring to a halt new job-creating industry in the Valley.

• Beginning in May of 2006, nearly 100 small and mid-size businesses would be subject to onerous and costly federal air quality regulations and permitting for the first time. Specifically, businesses that are expected to produce as little as 10 tons of emissions per year would be subjected to this permitting regime, seven months sooner than under the extreme designation.

• Hundreds of small and large businesses that employ significant numbers of workers in the Valley would be forced to pay an annual $5,000 per ton “emission fee” every year until the Valley is brought into attainment. A business could avoid these fees only by reducing its emissions by 20 percent or more. These fees, which would begin in 2006, would cost these businesses an estimated $36 million annually until attainment is reached, and cost the Valley economy even more from likely job losses or other economic dislocation.

Why the Business Community is Supporting a Voluntary Extreme Designation
As discussed previously, the San Joaquin Valley faces a set of air quality challenges that are unique. Overcoming these challenges will require time, flexibility and creativity that current deadlines and regulations do not allow. While an extreme designation carries real and costly consequences, it provides the Valley much greater ability to chart its own course and provide meaningful air quality improvements without unnecessarily harming the regional economy.

Among the benefits of a voluntary reclassification to extreme are:

• An additional five years, until 2010, to develop strategies to meet national health-based air quality standards. These strategies would include a credit for new technological improvements not yet envisioned by air quality planners. The San Joaquin Valley would control its own destiny and not be subject to the federal EPA’s one-size-fits-all approach.

• The additional time will allow planners to put to use the groundbreaking science developed by the $18 million Central California Ozone Study.

• Protects $2 billion in federal transportation funds.

• Ongoing implementation and enforcement of the Valley’s air quality reduction efforts, including retrofit of control technologies, new regulation of moderate-sized facilities, and holding the District and the emission sources accountable for regulations and permits already adopted.

• Additional time to allow improved vehicle emission control technology and fleet turnover to reduce air pollution from cars and trucks, thereby reducing the impact of air quality regulations on Valley businesses and residents’ lifestyle.

• Allows more time before new fees and regulations on small and mid-sized businesses would take effect.

• Additional time to seek to eliminate duplication with federal industrial facility permits. If the classification is not changed to “extreme,” then another 100 smaller manufacturers, food processors, wineries, printers, hospitals, and prisons would be subject to this onerous federal program much sooner.

• If regional strategies and improved technology bring the Valley into attainment by 2010, businesses will avoid $36 million a year in new “emission fees.”

Conclusion
The decision by Valley businesses to support a voluntary reclassification to extreme is not without risks and costs. Some will undoubtedly characterize this position as an attempt to delay air quality improvements. However, any honest analysis of the challenges the region faces leads to the conclusion that it cannot meet air quality standards and this failure will result in untold harm to the region’s economy, local governments and residents. Finally, existing and planned air quality improvements will not be delayed by this action.

The business and agricultural communities understand there are no easy solutions to this problem. They are committed to working collaboratively with other entities in the Valley, including regulators, local, state and federal officials and other businesses to develop appropriate strategies to reduce air pollution. Unless the San Joaquin Valley can overcome this daunting challenge – and we believe that it can if given the time and flexibility it needs – it will be forever burdened with the crushing weight of regulation, economic stagnation and missed opportunity.

|| Top of Page ||